El Niño heat warning: what it means for Malaysian fishermen

The El Niño heat warning for Malaysia now covers fishing and fish farming. Minister of Agriculture and Food Security Mohamad Sabu spoke on 16 October. Coastal fishermen and fish farms could be hit if it reaches 40°C, Bernama reported.

The 40°C figure is a forecast, not a reading. MetMalaysia says the warmest period could run from January to May 2027.

Here is what forecasters expect, why fishermen and fish farms are exposed, and what the government is doing. It also covers what remains unknown.

What forecasters expect

MetMalaysia’s Director-General, Dr Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip, spoke on 8 September. He said more northern stations could record up to 40°C, The Vibes reported. That could happen between January and May 2027.

He said the chance of a Super El Niño was “approaching 100 per cent”, based on international climate models. He also gave about a 70% chance that it would surpass any episode recorded since 1950.

For comparison, Malaysia’s highest recorded temperature is 40.1°C, at Chuping, Perlis, on 9 April 1998. Batu Embun, Pahang, hit 39.3°C on 10 April 2016.

In a later forecast, MetMalaysia said El Niño may affect the country until March 2027. The Vibes reported that rainfall could fall below average in Sabah and Sarawak, with drier spells in the peninsula.

Reports differ on the peak window. Sabu spoke on 7 October of 40°C from the end of this year until April. MetMalaysia’s forecast says January to May.

Why coastal fishermen are exposed

Sabu said extreme heat could push fish further out to sea, according to the Bernama report. That is a problem for coastal fishermen, who lack the capacity to fish in deeper waters.

He said coastal fishermen are generally restricted to a five nautical mile radius. They are not equipped to go beyond it.

The Sun reported that catches and earnings could fall. It quoted Sabu saying fish may move further out at 40°C. That makes it hard for coastal fishermen to secure their catch.

He said the government has discussed the issue with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim as part of food security planning. He added that allocations for coastal fishermen will rise.

The reports do not give the amount of the extra funding. They also do not say how many fishermen are in the affected zone.

What fish farms face

Sabu said aquaculture could also face challenges. Farmers may have to pay for protective measures, such as canvas covers over fish-rearing ponds.

Utusan Malaysia quoted him on the cost of canvas and ponds for land-based farms. Those are needed to cope with extreme heat. We have not seen figures for them.

He said early preparation and timely information are essential. Farmers and agrifood operators can then reduce the impact. He added that haze complicates preparations.

He said the matter has been discussed at ministry level and with menteri besar. It will go to the Prime Minister early. Priority will go to help for coastal fishermen and aquaculture.

Sabu said on 7 October that water shortages are a key worry for agriculture, including crops and livestock. Bernama reported that the ministry is seeking expert input, including from science and AI specialists.

What the authorities are doing, and what is unknown

MetMalaysia said in June that it had held more than 70 briefings with agencies at national, state and district levels. Bernama reported that it offers seven-day forest and peatland fire forecasts and haze forecasts.

It also said it is ready to help with cloud seeding if the need arises and the weather permits. Its public advice is to use water prudently and avoid open burning.

The Vibes reported that the haze risk is higher than in neutral years. Dry spells raise the risk of local and transboundary haze if open burning goes unchecked, MetMalaysia said.

Several things remain unclear. No source gives the extra funding for fishermen, the number of farms at risk or any loss estimates.

The window for the peak heat also varies between reports. Check the latest MetMalaysia forecast through its myCuaca app and website.