AdminWith the NFL regular season behind us, players and fans alike will be looking to the playoffs to see what teams will make it to the Super Bowl in February. The NFL playoffs feature 14 of the best teams from the NFC and AFC, with each conference getting seven teams to represent them. But what do the NFL stats say about betting opportunities and the underdogs in the playoff?
The 2021-22 Regular Season Was For The Underdogs Against The Spread
When people look to bet on teams, they usually bet on the point spread. Underdogs have been winning when it comes to the spread, going 130-122-3 for the 2021-22 NFL season. So by this statistic, it looks like the spreads slightly favor the underdog. But there are deeper details with these numbers. When you look at teams that were underdogs by ten points or more, they were only 17-26-3 against the spread.
So teams that were less than ten-point underdogs have gone 113-96 against the spread, giving the underdogs of under ten points a little bit of a boost. That boost can be something that people betting on the spread can take advantage of when they make their wagers.
Which Playoff Teams Are The Best Against The Spread?
While the playoffs have the best teams in the NFL playing for a shot at the Super Bowl, that doesn’t mean those teams are the best to bet on. However, two teams in the playoffs rank first and second against the spread for the 2021-22 NFL season.
The first team is the Dallas Cowboys. They have covered the spread 13 out of 17 times for a 76.5% cover rate, landing them as the top team to bet on against the spread. A deeper look also shows that they cover the spread on average by 5.9 points more than what the spread is for them. That stat shows that maybe one can risk giving away more points with Dallas on alternative spread betting. As the favorite, Dallas is also 10-3, ranking first among playoff teams.
The second-place team against the spread, and the number one seed in the NFC, is the Green Bay Packers. For the 2021-22 NFL season, they went 12-5 against the spread. When you look deeper into these stats, you will see that Green Bay isn’t as good against the spread as they look.
When Green Bay is the favorite, they are only 8-5 against the spread. What’s even worse is that Green Bay has lost three of their last four games against the spread as favorites. So while they might have started off the season looking good against the spread, the team has done poorly as of late.
Do The Underdogs In The Playoffs Have A Chance?
With the playoffs having the best teams, it can be hard to find a team that was an underdog for the season that made the playoffs. But two teams come to mind as underdog heroes against the spread.
The first is the Arizona Cardinals. They are an outstanding 6-0 against the spread as the underdog on the road. While most of those games happened while the team had star players J.J. Watt and DeAndre Hopkins, they did win some as underdogs without those star players. They will also be facing a team they beat on the road during the regular season in the Los Angeles Rams. This first game Wild Card matchup might favor them in the end if they can make plays with two of their biggest stars out for the game.
The New England Patriots are the other playoff team that’s good as a road underdog. They were 2-1 as road underdogs, with one of those wins coming against their current Wild Card opponent, the Buffalo Bills. New England also has a 10-7 record against the spread for the NFL season, tying them for fifth place among all teams.
With the best teams on the field for the playoffs, it will be a matter of which team can overcome the disadvantage of playing on the road to see if they can win as underdogs against the spread.
CJMY
